Dec 23, 2009

Supply Chain Forecast for the new year – Lots of ground to make up!! [Prediction]

 

With the year 2009 coming to a close and everyone speculating about what the new year is going to hold in store, let us take a look at what we can expect from a Supply Chain perspective. Predictions like this are tougher than usual because of the unpredictable nature of the economy. The ISM Report on Business talks about economic recovery. But this should be taken with a grain of salt. The economy is at a point where it could go both ways. An upswing in economic factors is impending. But whether it will take place in early 2010 or sometime later is open to speculation.

Plastics Today talks about ISM’s supply chain forecast in 2010.

The projections, which result from a survey done by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM; Tempe, AZ), are less optimistic for the non-manufacturing sector, whose respondents predict only a 1.3% increase in overall revenue. Manufacturing sector respondents were optimistic about the first half of 2010 and still more so for the second half.

Manufacturing purchasing execs say they are operating at 70.1% of normal capacity, up from 67% in April 2009, and that they will reduce inventories to improve their inventory-to-sales ratios in 2010. They predict strength in both exports and imports in 2010, despite an expectation that the U.S. dollar will weaken against the currencies of its major trading partners.

Manufacturing respondents to the ISM survey said they expect the prices they pay to rise 0.2% during the first four months of 2010, and an additional 2.4% for the rest of the year.

Source: PlasticsToday article

 

And ISM themselves have forecast an improvement in the numbers for the manufacturing sector in early 2010. I found their Semi-Annual forecast of Dec 2009 (for the first half of next year) and found some interesting predictions. Hit the jump for the whole forecast.

Main Predictions:

ECONOMIC RECOVERY CONTINUES IN 2010
Manufacturing Growth Expected in 2010
Revenue to Increase 5.7%
Capital Expenditures to Decrease 4%
Capacity Utilization Currently at 70.1%
Non-Manufacturing to Maintain Slight Growth
Revenue to Increase 1.3%
Capital Expenditures to Decrease 6.7%
Capacity Utilization Currently at 81.3%

Manufacturing Sector:

Expectations for 2010 are positive as 60 percent of survey respondents expect revenues to be greater in 2010 than in 2009. The panel of purchasing and supply executives expects a 5.7 percent net increase in overall revenues for 2010, compared to a 10.7 percent decrease reported for 2009. The 13 manufacturing industries expecting improvement over 2009 — listed in order — are: Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing*; Textile Mills; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Complete ISM Report here.

Personally, I think an important number to watch is going to be the oil prices per barrel. Our friends in the Trucking/Logistics space will have an eye on this especially during the summer of 2010 (I doubt they can forget the summer of 2008).

Any counter predictions are most welcome in the comments.

Dec 23, 2009

Supply Chain Forecast for the new year – Lots of ground to make up!! [Prediction]

 

With the year 2009 coming to a close and everyone speculating about what the new year is going to hold in store, let us take a look at what we can expect from a Supply Chain perspective. Predictions like this are tougher than usual because of the unpredictable nature of the economy. The ISM Report on Business talks about economic recovery. But this should be taken with a grain of salt. The economy is at a point where it could go both ways. An upswing in economic factors is impending. But whether it will take place in early 2010 or sometime later is open to speculation.

Plastics Today talks about ISM’s supply chain forecast in 2010.

The projections, which result from a survey done by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM; Tempe, AZ), are less optimistic for the non-manufacturing sector, whose respondents predict only a 1.3% increase in overall revenue. Manufacturing sector respondents were optimistic about the first half of 2010 and still more so for the second half.

Manufacturing purchasing execs say they are operating at 70.1% of normal capacity, up from 67% in April 2009, and that they will reduce inventories to improve their inventory-to-sales ratios in 2010. They predict strength in both exports and imports in 2010, despite an expectation that the U.S. dollar will weaken against the currencies of its major trading partners.

Manufacturing respondents to the ISM survey said they expect the prices they pay to rise 0.2% during the first four months of 2010, and an additional 2.4% for the rest of the year.

Source: PlasticsToday article

 

And ISM themselves have forecast an improvement in the numbers for the manufacturing sector in early 2010. I found their Semi-Annual forecast of Dec 2009 (for the first half of next year) and found some interesting predictions. Hit the jump for the whole forecast.

Main Predictions:

ECONOMIC RECOVERY CONTINUES IN 2010
Manufacturing Growth Expected in 2010
Revenue to Increase 5.7%
Capital Expenditures to Decrease 4%
Capacity Utilization Currently at 70.1%
Non-Manufacturing to Maintain Slight Growth
Revenue to Increase 1.3%
Capital Expenditures to Decrease 6.7%
Capacity Utilization Currently at 81.3%

Manufacturing Sector:

Expectations for 2010 are positive as 60 percent of survey respondents expect revenues to be greater in 2010 than in 2009. The panel of purchasing and supply executives expects a 5.7 percent net increase in overall revenues for 2010, compared to a 10.7 percent decrease reported for 2009. The 13 manufacturing industries expecting improvement over 2009 — listed in order — are: Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing*; Textile Mills; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Complete ISM Report here.

Personally, I think an important number to watch is going to be the oil prices per barrel. Our friends in the Trucking/Logistics space will have an eye on this especially during the summer of 2010 (I doubt they can forget the summer of 2008).

Any counter predictions are most welcome in the comments.